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Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Motor Lublin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Motor Lublin 4-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.99 xG and Motor Lublin 1.17 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.24 / defence 0.94 against Motor Lublin attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 56% | Draw 22% | Motor Lublin 22%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 54%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.66 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights