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Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Motor Lublin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Motor Lublin 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.31 xG and Motor Lublin 0.86 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.30 / defence 0.81 against Motor Lublin attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 70% | Draw 18% | Motor Lublin 12%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 52%, Motor Lublin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.71 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights