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Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Pogon Szczecin 3-4 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.40 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.19 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.20 / defence 1.00 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.02 / defence 1.34, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 64% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 17%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Lechia Gdansk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights