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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 33, as Pogon Szczecin and Lechia Gdansk drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.34 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.85 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 71% | Draw 18% | Lechia Gdansk 12%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Lechia Gdansk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights