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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Sat 17 May 2025

13:45

Venue

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Pogon Szczecin Win

71%

Pogon Szczecin

1.41

18%

Draw

5.69

12%

Lechia Gdansk

8.53

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

11.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

9.6%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.34

Pogon Szczecin xG

Total xG

3.19

0.85

Lechia Gdansk xG

71%
18%
12%
Pogon SzczecinDrawLechia Gdansk

1.41

71%

Home win

5.69

18%

Draw

8.53

12%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

62%

Over 2.5

1.61

38%

Under 2.5

2.63

40%

Over 3.5

2.50

60%

Under 3.5

1.67

22%

Over 4.5

4.55

78%

Under 4.5

1.28

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

43%

Pogon Szczecin

2.33

10%

Lechia Gdansk

10.42

Win to Nil

30%

Pogon Szczecin

3.30

1%

Lechia Gdansk

88.93

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.1 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
1 9.6 8.2 3.5 1.0 0.2
2 11.3 9.6 4.1 1.1 0.2
3 8.8 7.5 3.2 0.9 0.2
4 5.2 4.4 1.9 0.5 0.1
5 2.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.344
λ Away (xG) 0.847
Total xG 3.191
League avg home goals 1.536
League avg away goals 1.263
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 1.338
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 0.747
Lechia Gdansk attack strength 0.898
Lechia Gdansk defence strength 1.141
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 32