Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 May 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season.
Lech Poznan — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pogon Szczecin 2.10 PPG, Lech Poznan 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Lech Poznan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Pogon Szczecin's 1 victories.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Lech Poznan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lech Poznan have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 54% and Lech Poznan 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 46% | Lech Poznan 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.50 xG and Lech Poznan 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / defence 0.794 | Lech Poznan attack 1.300 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Lech Poznan have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Pogon Szczecin games / 43 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 31%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Lech Poznan 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Lech Poznan 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 37% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 62% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.50 / Lech Poznan 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.022 / def 0.794 | Lech Poznan attack 1.300 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Lech Poznan xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 1W | Draws 4 | Lech Poznan 5W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Lech Poznan's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.15
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.88
1.38
Lech Poznan xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.38 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 19W 9D 15L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 23W 13D 7L from 43 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 1.53 PPG, Lech Poznan on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 12W 5D 4L from 21 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.93 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lech Poznan in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 15L in their last 43 games (1.53 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 23W 13D 7L in their last 43 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.81 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
4
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 62%, Lech Poznan 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pogon Szczecin) and 57% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 57% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 57% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.