Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.90 for Gornik Zabrze. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 4W to 5W over the last 10 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 56% versus Gornik Zabrze 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 50% | Gornik Zabrze 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.17 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.113 / defence 1.018 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.068 / defence 0.654. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Gornik Zabrze's defence strength of 0.654 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Pogon Szczecin games / 47 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 29% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 40%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Gornik Zabrze 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Gornik Zabrze 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 29% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.17 / Gornik Zabrze 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.113 / def 1.018 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.068 / def 0.654 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Gornik Zabrze xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 29% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (10 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 1 | Gornik Zabrze 5W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.11x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (1.07x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
29%
3.45
31%
3.23
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.57
1.40
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
7%
14.03
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.40 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 9D 17L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gornik Zabrze sit at 1.76 PPG from 46 outings (23W 12D 11L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.76 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pogon Szczecin's home form reads 13W 5D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Gornik Zabrze have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.50 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 9D 17L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 23W 12D 11L in their last 46 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.83 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 1-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 62%, Gornik Zabrze 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Pogon Szczecin) and 38% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 50% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 38% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.