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Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gornik Zabrze.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Gornik Zabrze 3-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.32 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.08 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.97 / defence 0.80 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 29%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 47%, Gornik Zabrze 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.60 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights