🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-0 hammering of GKS Katowice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat GKS Katowice 4-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.93 xG and GKS Katowice 1.10 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GKS Katowice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.22 / defence 1.01 against GKS Katowice attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 57% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 21%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 50%, GKS Katowice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.69 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights