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Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Piast Gliwice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Piast Gliwice 1-3 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 39%, Zaglebie Lubin 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights