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Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Piast Gliwice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Piast Gliwice 0-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.48 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.19 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 30%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 34%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights