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Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 22, as Piast Gliwice and Stal Mielec drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.31 xG and Stal Mielec 0.83 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stal Mielec outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Stal Mielec attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 47% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 23%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 31%, Stal Mielec 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights