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Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Piast Gliwice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 0-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.84 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.08 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.66, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 28% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 41%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Raków Częstochowa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.33 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights