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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Radomiak Radom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Radomiak Radom 3-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 37% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 41%, Radomiak Radom 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights