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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Piast Gliwice 1-2 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.52 xG and Motor Lublin 0.87 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.87 / defence 0.77 against Motor Lublin attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 36%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights