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Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.23 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.22 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 39%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights