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Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 6, as Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.51 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.46 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.25 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 36%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 30%, Cracovia Krakow 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights