Piast Gliwice 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Piast Gliwice welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cracovia Krakow's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Piast Gliwice's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 40% versus Cracovia Krakow 76%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 30% | Cracovia Krakow 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.51 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.796 / defence 0.924 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.247 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.265. Piast Gliwice's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cracovia Krakow have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Piast Gliwice games / 39 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 36%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Cracovia Krakow 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Piast Gliwice dominate the H2H record, yet Cracovia Krakow are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 30% | Cracovia Krakow 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.51 / Cracovia Krakow 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.796 / def 0.924 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.247 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Cracovia Krakow xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 38% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (8 meetings): Piast Gliwice 3W | Draws 4 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.80) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
38%
2.60
25%
3.93
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.97
1.46
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
8%
12.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.46 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 13D 13L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 16W 9D 12L from 37 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.24 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (5W 8D 5L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 3D 6L from 18 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.81 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 76%.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 11W 13D 13L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 16W 9D 12L in their last 37 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.28 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
5
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 39%, Cracovia Krakow 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Piast Gliwice) and 67% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Piast Gliwice's games and 78% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 6, as Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.51 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.46 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.25 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 36%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 30%, Cracovia Krakow 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.