Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow – Match Report

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Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 18, as Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.44 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.73 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.34 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 23% | Cracovia Krakow 45%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 31%, Cracovia Krakow 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights