Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.91) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
32%
3.12
23%
4.30
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.17
1.73
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
6%
17.64
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.73 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.