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Dominant Piast Gliwice run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Arka Gdynia 4-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.75 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 23%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 52%, Arka Gdynia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights