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Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 13, as Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.39 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.92 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.81 / defence 1.59 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 12/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 28% | Draw 23% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Zaglebie Lubin 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights