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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Nieciecza 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Nieciecza 2-3 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.00 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nieciecza beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 4/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 28% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 43%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 25%, Raków Częstochowa 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nieciecza 1.75 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights