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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 3, as Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.70 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.52 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 1.29, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 42% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 34%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Pogon Szczecin 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nieciecza 1.50 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nieciecza managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights