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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sat 2 Aug 2025

13:45

Venue

Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Nieciecza Win

42%

Nieciecza

2.36

23%

Draw

4.30

34%

Pogon Szczecin

2.90

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.3%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

1 – 2

7.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.70

Nieciecza xG

Total xG

3.22

1.52

Pogon Szczecin xG

42%
23%
34%
NiecieczaDrawPogon Szczecin

2.36

42%

Home win

4.30

23%

Draw

2.90

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

62%

Over 2.5

1.61

38%

Under 2.5

2.63

40%

Over 3.5

2.50

60%

Under 3.5

1.67

22%

Over 4.5

4.55

78%

Under 4.5

1.28

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.56

36%

BTTS No

2.77

Clean Sheet

22%

Nieciecza

4.57

18%

Pogon Szczecin

5.50

Win to Nil

9%

Nieciecza

10.81

6%

Pogon Szczecin

15.94

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.0 6.0 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.3
1 6.8 10.3 7.8 4.0 1.5 0.5
2 5.8 8.8 6.7 3.4 1.3 0.4
3 3.3 5.0 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.2
4 1.4 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.704
λ Away (xG) 1.520
Total xG 3.224
League avg home goals 1.534
League avg away goals 1.322
Nieciecza attack strength 0.861
Nieciecza defence strength 1.150
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 1.000
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 1.291
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 2 / 36