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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lech Poznan cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Nieciecza 0-2 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.43 xG and Lech Poznan 2.16 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nieciecza fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.88 / defence 1.49 against Lech Poznan attack 1.25 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 25% | Draw 21% | Lech Poznan 54%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 38%, Lech Poznan 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Nieciecza managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights