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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 9

Kick-off

Sat 20 Sep 2025

16:30

Venue

Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

25%

Nieciecza

3.97

21%

Draw

4.84

54%

Lech Poznan

1.85

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 2

9.2%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.5%

Draw

1 – 3

6.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

Nieciecza xG

Total xG

3.59

2.16

Lech Poznan xG

25%
21%
54%
NiecieczaDrawLech Poznan

3.97

25%

Home win

4.84

21%

Draw

1.85

54%

Away win

Goals Markets

87%

Over 1.5

1.15

13%

Under 1.5

7.69

70%

Over 2.5

1.43

30%

Under 2.5

3.33

48%

Over 3.5

2.08

52%

Under 3.5

1.92

29%

Over 4.5

3.45

71%

Under 4.5

1.41

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

67%

BTTS Yes

1.49

33%

BTTS No

3.06

Clean Sheet

12%

Nieciecza

8.65

24%

Lech Poznan

4.18

Win to Nil

3%

Nieciecza

34.34

13%

Lech Poznan

7.72

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.8 6.0 6.4 4.6 2.5 1.1
1 4.0 8.5 9.2 6.6 3.6 1.5
2 2.8 6.1 6.6 4.7 2.6 1.1
3 1.3 2.9 3.1 2.3 1.2 0.5
4 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2
5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.430
λ Away (xG) 2.158
Total xG 3.588
League avg home goals 1.526
League avg away goals 1.158
Nieciecza attack strength 0.884
Nieciecza defence strength 1.488
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.253
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.060
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 8 / 40