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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Nieciecza 1-3 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.25 xG and Korona Kielce 1.32 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Korona Kielce attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 35% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 38%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 33%, Korona Kielce 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nieciecza 1.33 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights