🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nieciecza beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 0.80 xG and Jagiellonia 1.67 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nieciecza beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.72 / defence 1.45 against Jagiellonia attack 0.95 / defence 0.68, drawn from 17/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 16% | Draw 28% | Jagiellonia 56%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 53%, Jagiellonia 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights