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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 1-1 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.40 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.41 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.80 / defence 1.28 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.95 / defence 1.22, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 36% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 36%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Gornik Zabrze 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights