🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Motor Lublin run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stal Mielec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Stal Mielec 4-1 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.85 xG and Stal Mielec 1.45 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.10 / defence 1.30 against Stal Mielec attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 47% | Draw 23% | Stal Mielec 30%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Stal Mielec 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights