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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.53 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.19 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 44% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 28%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.43 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights