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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin and Radomiak Radom finished level at 2-2 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.75 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.11 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.03 / defence 1.39, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 52% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 24%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.40 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights