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Dominant Piast Gliwice run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Motor Lublin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Motor Lublin 1-4 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.41 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.27 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 40% | Draw 26% | Piast Gliwice 34%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 53%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.43 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights