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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Motor Lublin and Nieciecza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Motor Lublin and Nieciecza drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.07 xG and Nieciecza 1.06 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.83 / defence 0.90 against Nieciecza attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 40/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 35% | Draw 30% | Nieciecza 35%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 43%, Nieciecza 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Nieciecza's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights