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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.60 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 42% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 30%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 55%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.39 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights