🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa finished level at 3-3 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.58 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.03 / defence 1.18 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 42% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 34%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 48%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.52 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights