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Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Motor Lublin 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Motor Lublin 2-3 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.73 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.60 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.27 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 40% | Draw 26% | Lechia Gdansk 35%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 54%, Lechia Gdansk 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.35 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights