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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Motor Lublin and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin and Lechia Gdansk finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.80 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.26 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Motor Lublin fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 50% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 27%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 50%, Lechia Gdansk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights