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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Motor Lublin 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Motor Lublin 1-2 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.73 xG and Lech Poznan 1.49 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.20 / defence 1.27 against Lech Poznan attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 44% | Draw 23% | Lech Poznan 33%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Lech Poznan 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights