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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Motor Lublin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Korona Kielce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Korona Kielce 2-0 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.15 xG and Korona Kielce 1.55 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Korona Kielce landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.07 / defence 1.18 against Korona Kielce attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 27% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 45%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 55%, Korona Kielce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.36 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights