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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.13 xG and Jagiellonia 1.21 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Jagiellonia attack 0.91 / defence 0.76, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 32% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 36%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 54%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights