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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant GKS Katowice run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Motor Lublin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Motor Lublin 2-5 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.63 xG and GKS Katowice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. GKS Katowice outscored their 0.95 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against GKS Katowice attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 53% | Draw 25% | GKS Katowice 22%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a GKS Katowice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, GKS Katowice 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.36 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights