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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Motor Lublin edge out Arka Gdynia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Arka Gdynia 1-0 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.75 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arka Gdynia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 50% | Draw 24% | Arka Gdynia 27%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights