Legia Warszawa 2-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wisla Plock have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Legia Warszawa's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Wisla Plock's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Wisla Plock in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 51% versus Wisla Plock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Wisla Plock 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.24 xG and Wisla Plock 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.379 / defence 1.123 | Wisla Plock attack 0.874 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.065. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Legia Warszawa games / 63 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 16%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Wisla Plock 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 80% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.24 / Wisla Plock 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.379 / def 1.123 | Wisla Plock attack 0.874 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 63% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
Record (3 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.87x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.73
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.28
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
11%
9.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
60.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.04 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 63 games, going 29W 13D 21L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.33 PPG from 63 outings (25W 9D 29L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.33 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 19W 5D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 0.71 points per game from 31 outings (6W 4D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.38 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Wisla Plock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 29W 13D 21L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 25W 9D 29L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Wisla Plock away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.00 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 52%, Wisla Plock 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Legia Warszawa) and 61% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Legia Warszawa's games and 64% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 61% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Wisla Plock 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 2.24 xG and Wisla Plock 1.04 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.38 / defence 1.12 against Wisla Plock attack 0.87 / defence 1.25, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 16%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Wisla Plock 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.59 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.