Jagiellonia 3-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Warta Poznań's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Jagiellonia, 1.70 for Warta Poznań — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Jagiellonia 0W, Warta Poznań 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Warta Poznań winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 67% versus Warta Poznań 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 52% | Warta Poznań 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.30 xG and Warta Poznań 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.114 / defence 1.067 | Warta Poznań attack 0.826 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.047. Data: 63 Jagiellonia games / 63 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Warta Poznań 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Warta Poznań 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Jagiellonia 1.30 / Warta Poznań 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.114 / def 1.067 | Warta Poznań attack 0.826 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Warta Poznań xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Jagiellonia 3 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań part of?
Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 44% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań?
Record (3 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 2 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.11) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.83x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
44%
2.30
31%
3.18
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.22
0.92
Warta Poznań xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.92 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 25D 21L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 23W 17D 23L from 63 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.37 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 14W 5D 12L from 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.10 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 17W 25D 21L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 23W 17D 23L in their last 63 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Warta Poznań away?
Warta Poznań's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.48 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Jagiellonia 3-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 68%, Warta Poznań 19% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jagiellonia) and 26% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 45%; Warta Poznań in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 19% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 26% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Warta Poznań 3-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.30 xG and Warta Poznań 0.92 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against Warta Poznań attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 31% | Warta Poznań 25%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 52%, Warta Poznań 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.21 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.