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Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Wisla Plock 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Wisla Plock 2-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.19 xG and Wisla Plock 0.86 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Wisla Plock attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 42% | Draw 33% | Wisla Plock 25%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 43%, Wisla Plock 19%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Legia Warszawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights