🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.83 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.86 / defence 0.85 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 26%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 48%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.42 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights