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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 34, as Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.71 xG and Stal Mielec 1.14 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stal Mielec outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.85 / defence 0.83 against Stal Mielec attack 1.10 / defence 1.28, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 25%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Stal Mielec 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights