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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.57 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.19 / defence 1.19, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 30%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.41 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights